Bitcoin STH-SOPR Falls Below 1.0 for the First Time Since April - What This Means

Bitcoin is showing signs of renewed weakness as short-term investors begin to fold under selling pressure. According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has fallen to 0.992, its lowest level since late April. This key on-chain metric tracks the average profit or loss realized by Bitcoin holders who have owned their coins for less than 155 days — a group often associated with speculative or reactive behavior.When the STH-SOPR dips below 1.0, it indicates that these holders are selling their coins at a loss, signaling a wave of capitulation and rising fear among newer market participants. The current value implies an average loss of 0.8%, reflecting a notable shift in sentiment after weeks of volatile price action.Historically, such phases of short-term capitulation often mark moments of emotional exhaustion, where retail traders give up amid uncertainty. While this can reinforce short-term bearish pressure, it also tends to precede market stabilization — as weaker hands exit and long-term investors absorb supply.Bitcoin STH-SOPR Signals Short-Term Weakness and Long-Term OpportunityAccording to CryptoOnchain’s latest insights shared on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) remains below the crucial 1.0 threshold, reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook. As long as both the STH-SOPR and its 14-day moving average stay under this key level, the indicator acts as a form of resistance — reflecting that short-term holders continue selling at a loss. In such conditions, every price rally risks being met with renewed selling pressure, as these investors look to exit positions at break-even or with minimal loss, creating a ceiling for upward momentum.However, this same behavior can also plant the seeds for a long-term bullish setup. Historically, extended periods of loss realization by short-term holders have coincided with the final stages of market corrections. This process — often described as a “cleansing” phase — shakes out weak hands and redistributes Bitcoin to long-term holders who are less sensitive to short-term volatility. When capitulation reaches its peak, it often signals the market is approaching “maximum pain”, a point that tends to precede strong recoveries.While Bitcoin’s current structure suggests ongoing weakness, this phase could also mark the foundation of the next uptrend. Traders should closely monitor the STH-SOPR for a decisive reclaim above 1.0, as that would confirm a shift from loss-driven selling to profit realization — signaling renewed market strength and the potential start of a new bullish phase. Bears Defend Resistance, Bulls Struggle to Reclaim MomentumBitcoin is currently trading around $109,400, showing a modest rebound but still facing strong resistance at higher levels. As seen in the 1-day chart, BTC remains trapped below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which are now converging near $112,000–$114,000 — a zone that has repeatedly acted as supply during recent recoveries.The 200-day moving average, positioned around $106,000, continues to provide short-term support. However, the repeated retests of this level suggest weakening buyer strength. The inability to sustain a close above $110,000 highlights persistent selling pressure, with traders preferring to de-risk amid broader market uncertainty.If Bitcoin manages to reclaim $112,000, momentum could shift toward $117,500, the key horizontal resistance and previous range high. A decisive breakout above this level would invalidate the recent bearish structure and open the path toward $123,000.On the downside, failure to hold the $106,000–$107,000 support range could expose BTC to further downside risk, with potential targets near $102,000 or even $98,000 if selling accelerates.Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.comWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei NewsBTC Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei NewsBTC