Column: Balochistan and the new international chessboard of critical minerals

A global chess match is unfolding over the control of copper, rare earths, and other critical minerals that will influence the balance of power for decades. While debate often centres on Washington, Beijing, and the industrial hubs of Europe and East Asia, one of the most consequential fronts lies far from the usual geopolitical spotlight. Balochistan, a remote and historically overlooked region in western Pakistan, has quietly become a contested space between competing development models. China has deepened its footprint through the Saindak Mine and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, while the West is returning with force through Barrick Mining’s $9 billion Reko Diq copper-gold project.Pakistan now finds itself courted by both sides. Its challenge is not merely to choose a partner, but to use this moment to secure long-term strategic leverage and genuine autonomy. Failure would leave it in its familiar role as a peripheral pawn in a much larger game.The global contest for critical mineralsCopper, cobalt, rare earths, and other minerals now sit at the centre of national security planning as countries race to electrify their economies, strengthen defence supply chains, and compete in advanced manufacturing. China holds a clear lead thanks to dominant refining capacity and well-established positions across much of the developing world. Western economies are scrambling to rebuild supply chains they allowed to fade, relying on subsidies, multilateral financing, and diplomatic outreach. Many of the world’s most promising deposits lie in difficult jurisdictions like Balochistan, where governance and security lag well behind geological potential.Why Balochistan has become strategically centralFor decades Balochistan was dismissed as too remote and politically fragile for major mining investment. That view is shifting as three forces converge. First is world-class geology. The province hosts some of the largest undeveloped copper gold systems on the planet at a time when the world faces a looming copper shortage. Reko Diq sits within the Tethyan Belt, a corridor that has produced some of the world’s biggest mines, including Grasberg in Indonesia. Barrick, which secured a 50% stake in 2022, reports 7.3 million tonnes of recoverable copper and 15 million ounces of gold, though earlier estimates from 2010 suggest the deposit could be far larger. If those numbers hold, Reko Diq would rank among the world’s leading copper gold mines. In a copper starved world, it is impossible to ignore.Second is China’s anchor in the province through CPEC. Roads, energy infrastructure, and the deep water port at Gwadar have made Balochistan a key node in China’s Belt and Road and Maritime Silk Road plans, giving Beijing a reliable route to the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. Further north, the long running Saindak Mine provides an operational foothold that reinforces China’s presence.Map by Dibyendu.Third is the broader Eurasian landscape. Balochistan sits near a set of trade corridors that matter to India, Russia, and Iran. The International North South Transport Corridor runs through Iran today, but strategic planners in New Delhi and Moscow continue to study alternatives that would provide port access to the Arabian Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. While Pakistan is not part of the corridor, its deep ports, especially Gwadar, offer rare access points beyond Hormuz. These factors shape how external powers assess Pakistan’s alignment. China wants to lock in continuity through CPEC. The United States and Europe want Pakistan to stay multi aligned. India watches closely for moves that could shift the balance on its western flank. Russia is searching for new avenues for non Western trade under Western sanctions. All of these interests converge on the same geography.This makes Balochistan more than a mining story. It is a square where several global games overlap.Two projects, two modelsSaindak and Reko Diq represent two competing development philosophies. Saindak reflects China’s state directed model, marked by vertical integration, turnkey execution, Chinese technical personnel, and limited integration with domestic institutions. Transparency remains sparse, but the project delivers output on China’s terms and anchors Beijing’s presence in western Pakistan.Reko Diq reflects a Western model driven by public private partnership, strong institutions, and support from groups such as the IFC, US EXIM, and European lenders. Its development framework stresses environmental and social standards, layered permitting, and regulatory predictability. The process moves more slowly, but it strengthens governance and opens doors for other global investors. Its success depends on seamless coordination between federal and provincial authorities, a demanding test of Pakistan’s institutional capacity.These models embody two visions for how frontier market mineral development should unfold. China prioritizes speed and control. The West prioritizes transparency and long-term institutional stability. Pakistan’s opportunity lies not in choosing one over the other, but in shaping an approach that draws strength from both while advancing its own autonomy.The stakes for PakistanThe attention of multiple foreign powers gives Pakistan something rare in the global minerals landscape: leverage.While leverage is powerful, it can also be fragile. If Pakistan leans too heavily into CPEC, it risks Western disengagement. If it leans too far toward Western financiers, it risks fraying its most its most established infrastructure partner and creditor in Beijing. These pressures are layered atop a backdrop of domestic political volatility, macroeconomic pressure, and local security dynamics that complicate execution.Neither China nor the West can provide the institutional coherence needed to turn investment into sustained production. Only Pakistan can.A square that shapes the gameBalochistan is no longer a distant frontier. The stakes for global powers are too high. It is now a strategic square in the contest for mineral security, a place where China, the West, India, and Russia all have interests that intersect, even if their aims differ.Whether Pakistan becomes a player with real agency or remains a pawn moved by others depends on how it manages these overlapping pressures. Geology has drawn the world’s attention. Geography gives the province strategic value. But Pakistan’s administrative and strategic execution will determine the outcome. The stakes could not be higher.* Erik Groves is Corporate Strategy and In-House Counsel at Morgan Companies.The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of MINING.COM or The Northern Miner Group.Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com